S&P Global forecasts leased vehicle returns will fall by 41% year-over-year — a difference of nearly 1 million units — in the first half of 2025. Analysts warned the decline will be most pronounced in the premium market, where supplies of off-lease units are predicted to drop by 46%; that figure improves to -39% for mass-market lease returns.

The report notes returns are primarily driven by 36-month leases. In 2022, consumers faced limited inventories and correspondingly few incentives.

“This contributed to an average 10% rise in lease payments as a percentage of MSRP from 2019 to 2022,” it reads, in part. “On the other hand, finance payments as a percentage of MSRP held steady. In part because of this differential, returning lessees in H1 2022 who opted to replace their outgoing leases often chose to finance their new vehicles instead.”

Read more at S&P Global