The Conference Board’s U.S. Consumer Confidence Index declined for the third consecutive month, driven by an underwhelming short-term outlook for personal income and the wider business and labor market.

The overall index fell to 98.3, down seven points from January and 14.5 points from a post-election spike in November. The Present Situation Index declined by 3.4 points to 136.5, with 19.6% of consumers surveyed saying current conditions are “good,” up from 18.5% in January. However, the Expectations Index fell 9.3 points to 72.9, below the 80-point threshold that serves as a key indicator of a future recession.

Conference Board analysts say more consumers are putting off the purchase of big-ticket items, including vehicles, as concerns over costs and inflation persist.

“Average 12-month inflation expectations surged from 5.2% to 6% in February. This increase likely reflected a mix of factors, including sticky inflation but also the recent jump in prices of key household staples like eggs and the expected impact of tariffs,” writes Senior Economist of Global Indicators Stephanie Guichard. “References to inflation and prices in general continue to rank high in write-in responses, but the focus shifted towards other topics. There was a sharp increase in the mentions of trade and tariffs, back to a level unseen since 2019. Most notably, comments on the current administration and its policies dominated the responses.”

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